Storms off Sibolga

(Originally Posted Monday, 23 January 2017)

What if Z's motive was political ?

(Originally posted Thursday, 9 June 2016)

If Z's motive was political, perhaps the second altitude call was a "signal" to "someone", that signified, "I have the plane, the plan is a "go"".

I have often wondered about that "mysterious" last phone call Z made in the terminal. When he made that call, everything was "on time and on track" for departure. 

The call could have been to an accomplice on the ground, probably in Kota, with a scanner, giving him final confirmation of call-sign, flight-plan route to Igari, estimated time of take-off, estimated time at Igari etc. This person was to monitor the frequency for MH-370's radio transmissions. 

Perhaps the "double maintaining level call" at "about the right time(s), was the signal to that accomplice, that meant, "I have the plane, the plan is a "go"", and thus, it was time for that accomplice to implement the plan to place the political demands on the government. 

Now, that would take time. Time is critical here. 

The accomplice would have to use an "untraceable phone" (easily obtained) to place one or more calls to certain people in "government circles", who would then need "time" to "react", i.e. pass it up the food chain, get people out of bed, etc, etc, enough time for Z to fly back to Penang before anyone in government circles "got their act together". 

Z knew that his flight back across the peninsula to Penang would be seen by both civilian and military primary radars.  He wanted to be seen.  He had to prove to the government that his demands were real, and not a bluff.  He was totally confident that the initial confusion and indecision "at the coalface" among those in the Civil ATC and the Military IADS control centers, in the early hours of the morning, would easily buy him the time he needed (only 35 minutes) to fly back to Penang unmolested.

Furthermore, once passing Penang at 17:52, literally within sight of Butterworth RMAF airbase, the home of the RMAF's FA-18's, he could fly up the Malacca Strait full well knowing that would be tracked by the Western Hill PSR, which he dearly wanted, and needed, to give the government the undeniable "it is not a bluff, it is real, I am doing it, bye !" routine.

By the time anyone in government circles could have "got their act together", it was way too late to scramble any fighters, even if the ground crews and pilots had been "on base", but not on 5 minute QRA (which they never are - except during exercises).

For all practical purposes, he had given the RMAF (and it's parent Government) "the finger" (which is grossly disrespectful - from a mere civilian).  He was long gone, and by 18:30z, he was "safely out of reach", north west of Ache, (beyond FA_18 operational radius) and the government would know he was there, and both he and they knew, that there was nothing that they could do about it.. In other words, he had them "over a barrel".

Mexican stand-off. 

The reason for the SDU reboot, was that he was "expecting a call from an accomplice", from "a known number", indicating the government knew he had the plane. 

Although there was the first sat call at 18:40z, it was not from the "known number" so he deliberately did not answer it. 

In accordance with his plan, he flew south, (west of Sumatra) waiting, and waiting, for 'that call" from "his man". But, alas, it never came.

After another hour or so (19:40z), with no call from his man, to confirm the government would "play ball", he knew that the government would not play ball, so "the die was cast", he proceeded with his "Plan B" to oblivion in the SIO.

I am pretty sure that Z would have been perfectly prepared for this eventuality, and knowing that the CVR had a two hour recording, I am sure that he will have given a full explanation of his actions, and his  reasons for doing so, and then, "pulled the circuit breaker" to preserve that information in the CVR, hoping that some day, it would be recovered, downloaded and read, by any honest and trustworthy accident investigation body, of any government, other than Malaysia.

For this reason, if the aircraft is found in the SIO, all the evidence available negates any plausible "accident" scenario, and clearly points to it being there as a result of some "criminal / terrorist scenario".

 Accordingly, since it must first and foremost be considered a most  probable crime, of mass murder / suicide, or a terrorist act, criminal legal conventions apply, not "accident" conventions, so ICAO Annex-13 is immediately out the window, on it's arse, as indeed are any other so called "agreements" that may have been made by the "tripartite states" during the early stages, when all three governments were more than happy to falsely masquerade the "mysterious accident" situation, when they should have clearly suspected (and may have actually known) otherwise.

For these reasons, it is absolutely essential, that if the wreckage is ever found in the SIO, and if the CVR  and or FDR is ever recovered, it is critical, that it only be examined by a totally neutral (in terms of the "possibility" of "top down - political interference") criminal investigation body, preferably the Australian Federal Police.

I repeat, if MH370 is found in the SIO, it is "obviously" a CRIME SCENE, and NOT an ACCIDENT SITE, and it must be treated as a crime, and as a crime scene, by the Legal System, and that LEGAL, CRIMINAL INVESTIGATION, must be totally quarantined, and must NOT BE ALLOWED TO BE CONTAMINATED BY AVIATION INTERESTS of any kind, of any nation.

In my view, the French are completely, utterly and totally correct, in treating the "flaperon" as "evidence" in a "criminal / terrorist" investigation, and keeping it under wraps.  All other wreckage or debris previously collected and positively identified as being from MH-370 should also be taken into legal custody as "evidence" by the Australian Federal Police immediately. They have both the LEGAL RITE,  and the LEGAL RESPONSIBILITY, to investigate the circumstance of the "unlawful deaths" surrounding the SIX Australian citizens who died on MH370. Therefore, the already collected debris should not, and must not, be allowed, under any circumstances, to be passed on, to any other government, or there  agencies, of any kind. 

All further wreckage or debris recovered must also be taken into custody by the Australian Federal Police.

In any case, it is beyond critical, that the Malaysian government, never get their hands on the CVR (or FDR, or any further wreckage or debris that may be recovered for that matter), regardless of any pre-existing agreements, accident investigation conventions, or whatever.